New Gas Model Launched

gas model upgrade
Product
Oct. 1, 2018Joachim Endress

We have launched a new gas model. With the new forecast models we provide new short- and medium-term models.

Gas Spot Models 

Short-term: the quantitative-technical forecast

We have revised our 14-days forecast model. For the time being, we provide forecasts for the spot markets Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. The short-term spot model is a quantitative-technical based forecast model. In the new model, chart-technical factors have a stronger impact on the forecast than in the old model.

Medium-term: the empirical forecast

Also, we have launched a new medium-term spot forecast for Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. The empirical model is based on the historical price developments and provides a BEST GUESS, an extreme LOW- and extreme HIGH-Forecast. It ranges until the end of the Front Quarter. It provides forecasts for Front Quarter, Front Quarter+1, Front Quarter+2, and Front Cal. The model replaces the previous short-term Forward Model. All medium-term forecasts provide a simulation on a bullish or bearish Oil Market

Fundamental Forecast Launched

Short-term Consumption Forecast

We revised thoroughly our 14-days forecast model. We provide you currently forecast for the gas consumption for the areas Germany, the Netherlands and the UK.

Storage Forecast Model

We introduce a new forecast model for the storage market. We provide you currently for the areas Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK:

  • 14 days forecast for Storage Injection and Storage Withdrawal
  • Two scenarios: based on long-term average or recent development of the last 30 days.
  • Medium-term Forecast: Filling level Storage. Range until end of front Quarter.

Gas-to-Power Forecast

We introduce a new forecast model for the gas-to-power consumption, currently for the areas Germany, the Netherlands and the UK. The range is 14 days.

Changes in the Data Center

  • All forecast data is provided in the order: MIN-BEST GUESS-MAX. The previous order was partly inconsistent and which leads to some changes in some forecast file. Please check your downloads! 
  • The Forward Forecast columns are ordered differently than they used to be in the past, due to the new model. Please check your downloads!
  • Forward Forecast ranges now until the end of Front Quarter. Please take into account that all provided Medium-term Forecast are based on an empirical model.
  • Medium-term Spot Forecast, Storage and Gas-to-Power Forecasts will be added within short-term to the data center.

We understand that changes like this can be a burden. Please let us know, if you face any problems, we help you out. We hope you appreciate the new services. Please contact us, if you need some explanation or any help to the new models. 

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