Ramadan Effect Included in Consumption Model

Ramadan
Editorial
May 24, 2017ANAMARIA TOEBE

The effect of Holy Month of Ramadan included into the consumption model for Turkey.

The upcoming Ramadan starts on the 25th of June this year, and it is one of the most important months in the Islamic calendar. We estimated consumption during this month will decrease in average of about 26% compared to normal assumptions.

Eid-ul-Fitr is a holiday that marks the end of Ramadan – the Holy month of fasting. Depending on the year, the fasting Ramadan month lasts for 29 or 30 days. As it is based on the Islamic lunar calendar, the exact dates are determined by the sighting of the new moon. This year the fasting time starts on Friday the 26th of May, and it will end on the 24th of June. During this month most Muslims spend the daylight hours in a complete fast. Consequently, there is a change in the demand for electricity as people get early in the morning to eat before the sunrise breaks. All industries shorter their working hours during the Holy month.

Within the re-estimation the consumption model for TR the effect of the fasting Ramadan month was included into the model. As expected, most of the night hours were statistically significant in our evaluation. The estimated increase in the consumption will average almost 2 GW for the first four hours of the day during this period.

Ramadan Effect New Fcast

The graph above shows the updated TR consumption forecast for the next days, including the Ramadan effect, compared to the old forecast.

Related Facts

  • Once in 32 years the Festival of Ramadan is celebrated twice during the same year. Last time this occurred in 2000, thus next time when it will be celebrated two times will be in 2032.
  • Starting from this year, July 15 has been declared as a public holiday in Turkey – Democracy and Freedom Day – to mark the coup tentative from summer 2016.

We keep track of all public holidays throughout Europe, and calculates this effect on power demand for each price area. You can find this information under Consumption>Holiday Effect pages.

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