Fuel and Emission Scenarios Added to Medium-term Power Forecast

Fuel and Emission Scenarios
Product
April 17, 2018Dr. Carsten Trapp

We added a scenario analysis for a variation in coal, gas and CO2 emission prices to our Medium-term Power Forecast. With the new fuel scenarios, you get a convenient overview of how commodity markets impact power prices.

Fuel and Emissions - Stay on Top of the Market 

Power prices are impacted by fuel and emission prices. For you as a power trader, analyst or portfolio manager, this requires following commodity markets constantly. With Wattsight's Medium-term Power Forecast, this task is easier than ever. 

In the coal price scenarios, for example, we compare our daily forward forecast based on fuel assumptions with a forecast based on a low coal price and a high coal price (see table below). The coal price variation is +/- 10 $/t with respect to the reference case. The gas price scenarios are based on a variation of the gas price of +/- 3 €/MWh and the CO2 price scenario is based on a variation of the CO2 emission price by +/- 3 €/EUA. 

Power Medium-term Fuel Scenarios

Stay Flexible in You Daily Analysis with the Sensitivity Value

Based on the scenario forecasts we estimate the sensitivity of the power prices to changes in coal, gas or CO2 price. With the sensitivity value you can now easily estimate by how much power prices increase if, for example, the coal price is 3.0 $/t higher. Using the sensitivity value of 0.17 €/MWh per $/t for May-18 from the table above, then the power price for May-18 of 33.0 €/MWh would increase to 33.5 €/MWh. In conclusion, the fuel and emission scenario will give you more flexibility in your daily analysis of the different forward products. 

Bi-weekly Updates 

The newly added analysis can be found at app.wattsight.com under Complete Forward > Fuel ScenariosThe scenario calculations are updated bi-weekly and available for price zones in Central Western Europe, Portugal, and Spain. More countries will be added soon. 

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